If I was a bookmaker, I’d be taking no more bets on Australia making a net zero carbon statement at November’s COP26 in Glasgow. I think it will happen, as the realpolitik of a federal election next year will take precedence over the rumblings of discontent within the coalition government’s junior partner, the Nationals.

The breeze really stirred the change of government rhetoric with comments made to the ABC by Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, on 24 September supporting net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Since then, Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has softened his stance against setting a hard date for achieving net zero and Environment Minister, Sussan Ley, has expressed her belief that a 2050 commitment is achievable.

Reactions to this shift have been everything from supportive, through dubious to rejection. The truth is that many Australians welcome a clear commitment and it will likely play well with some voters in green-leaning inner city seats. These will be keenly contested electorates next year, with the Liberal Party facing off against left-leaning Labor and Green candidates.

More dubious reactions have suggested that a commitment without a legislative backbone will add up to little and possibly leave a re-elected coalition government with too much scope to wind it back post-election. Critics have also observed that the Frydenberg commentary put net zero into the context of economic interests and ESG investment trends with little discernible concern for the existential issue of climate change.

Opposition to any commitment has come from the usual suspects - the National’s Matt Canavan, George Christensen and others whose electors are most exposed to de-carbonisation of the economy and especially coal mining.

However, Nationals leader, Barnaby Joyce, appears to be refining his narrative for constituents, remarking that adequate compensation for regional communities must accompany any support from his party to a net zero commitment.

The bottom line is the coalition government is slowly aligning, albeit with much kicking and screaming from the bleachers, for a commitment to a 2050 deadline for carbon neutrality.

Anyone doubting this is overlooking the political animal that is Scott Morrison. While launching a national debate on nuclear powered submarines just ahead of a Quad (Australian, US, India and Japan) summit, he torpedoed any chance of climate change being top of the agenda of state-side conversations with climate-sympathetic and progressive Democrats, President Joe Biden and House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi.

Nevertheless, conversations did take place, with Morrison successfully navigating to land comments from Pelosi expressing a degree of admiration and support for Australia’s progress on climate change.

The Australian Prime Minister, having nominally become the nation’s most frequent participant in COVID quarantine, may not attend COP26, with the most likely delegate being Minister for Foreign Affairs, Marise Payne.

With two states, New South Wales and Victoria, in various stages of emerging from COVID lockdowns as they pass vaccination milestones, Morrison will be much better served politically to revel in the completion of a previously vexed vaccination ‘strollout’ and the reinstatement of freedoms denied to the nation’s largest populations.

Timing is everything in the electoral cycle and the nation being in lockstep towards freedom will undoubtedly fade memories of lockdown, although there will be sizeable communities that will take years to recover, personally and financially.

Morrison and his strategists will want to put as much distance between themselves and COVID and the botched vaccination program as they can in the lead up to the 2022 election and this will mean redirecting attention to other big issues.

While economic recovery from COVID will take centre stage, not addressing climate change would make the Liberals vulnerable in the cities. That’s why a climate happy face for the cameras on the international stage makes a net zero commitment almost inevitable at COP26.